国际能源署:世界需要三倍投资于可再生能源

In 2020, fossil fuels account for nearly 80% of the total global energy supply 

The International Energy Agency stated that if the world wants to effectively respond to climate change and control the turbulent energy market, then we need to invest three times in renewable energy within the current ten years.

The International Energy Agency pointed out in the “World Energy Outlook 2021” released on the 13th, “The world has not provided enough investment to meet future energy demand… Expenditures related to the energy transition are gradually picking up, but they are still far from reaching the target. To the extent that the ever-increasing demand for energy services can be met in a sustainable manner.”

“It is important for policymakers to send clear signals and directions. If the road ahead is paved only by good intentions, then it will be a very rugged journey.”

The Paris-based International Energy Agency released the World Energy Outlook 2021 earlier this year to guide the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) scheduled to be held later this month.

This upcoming meeting in Glasgow, Scotland is “the first test of whether countries are prepared to make new and more ambitious commitments under the Paris Agreement in 2015” and “an opportunity to send a’clear signal’ to accelerate The global transition to clean energy”.

Need for a faster energy transition

In recent weeks, as oil and natural gas prices have hit multi-year highs, energy shortages have generally appeared in Asia, Europe and the United States, and electricity prices have also soared to record levels. As governments relax restrictions to contain the new crown epidemic, global demand for fossil fuels is also recovering.

The International Energy Agency warned that renewable energy such as solar, wind, and hydropower, as well as bio-energy, should occupy a larger share of the energy investment rebound after the new crown epidemic.

国际能源署指出,可再生能源将占今年新增发电能力投资的三分之二以上,但煤炭和石油使用的大幅增长,已使二氧化碳排放量的年度增幅上升至史上第二高的水平,而该排放量正是导致气候变化的主要原因之一。

国际能源署表示,加快能源转型速度将在未来更好地保护消费者,大宗商品带来的价格将冲击家庭成本,最雄心勃勃的2050年“净零排放计划”(Net Zero Emissions)将比更为保守的“既定政策情景”(Stated Policies Scenario)低30%。

现状与净零排放

尽管如此,要兑现各国在2015年的《巴黎协定》中作出的承诺,即将气温升幅尽可能控制在比工业化前时期高出1.5摄氏度(约2.7华氏度)的水平之内,仍然需要实现巨大的飞跃。

在2020年,化石燃料——煤炭、天然气和石油——占到世界能源供应的近80%,而可再生能源仅占其中的12%。

为了将气温上升幅度保持在1.5摄氏度左右,国际能源署的“净零排放计划”经预测认为,化石燃料在本世纪中叶的供应结构中所占比例应当被缩小至略低于四分之一,而可再生能源需要上升至三分之二以上。

但是根据“既定政策情景”,如果世界继续按照当前的轨道发展,那么预计在2100年之际,气温将上升2.6摄氏度(约4.7华氏度)。

国际能源署指出,在“既定政策情景”之下,石油需求将在本世纪30年中期首次达到峰值,然后非常缓慢地下降,但是在“净零排放”的预测中,石油需求会在10年内趋于平稳,而在2050年之际,这项需求将进一步下降近四分之三。

国际能源署在今年5月公布的一份报告中,对化石燃料的未来发出了迄今为止最为严厉的警告。该机构表示,其“净零排放”路线图要求这类需求下降,以及低排放燃料的增加,并且在2021年之后没有开发新油气田的必要。

然而,这份报告也指出,在两种最保守的情况下需要开发新的油田,同时也为此提供了甲烷燃除等减轻这类排放对气候影响的建议。

国际能源署警告称,“每一个显示在能源方面的转变速度的数据点,都可能会被另一项显示顽固现状的数据点所抵消。”

“Today’s energy system cannot cope with these challenges. The low-emission revolution should have arrived long ago.”